Portugal celebrates the anniversary of its return to democracy, the far-right continues to rise.

Written by Paul Doran, May 19, of 2024

• This year marks the fiftieth anniversary of the so-called Carnation Revolution ("a Revolução dos Cravos") in Portugal. The revolution was midwifed by around 300 military officers formed into the so-called Armed Forces Movement ("Movimento das Forças Armadas") and who on 25th April 1974 staged a coup against then-Prime Minister Marcelo Caetano. Although led by soldiers, the revolution was peaceful: iconic images of soldiers with bright red carnations protruding from their gun barrels became a potent symbol of the civil-military alliance that ended Portugal’s dictatorship.

• In1968, Caetano became Prime Minister following the retirement of António de Oliveira Salazar, who had led the country since 1932 and who was the prime architect of the conservative, authoritarian New State ("Estado Novo”). Caetano did not seek the dissolution of the New State, rather its limited reform and – particularly after Salazar’s death in 1970 – he took some liberalising measures such as easing press censorship and allowing a limited labour movement to emerge.

•  But real political opposition was not tolerated and sham elections in 1972 only served to exacerbate popular discontent with the regime, which largely relied on its secret police to persecute opponents and maintain a grip on power. Moreover, the 1973 oil shock destabilized an economy already weakened by inflated military expenditure on deeply unpopular colonial wars in Africa.

•  By 1974, the country was primed for revolution but the 25th April coup encountered little resistance from regime loyalists. Indeed, the remarkable thing about Portugal’s revolution was its peaceful nature and the coalescence of an alliance between the MFA and civil society, from middle-class moderate conservatives and liberals to the more radical socialists and communists strong among the working class. By 1976, Portugal had returned to being a pluralist, liberal democracy, disentangled from colonial wars and on the start of its journey to integration into Europe. Still today, 25th April is celebrated as Freedom Day ("Dia da Liberdade") in Portugal.

• After the country adopted a democratic constitution in 1976, the first democratic elections were won by the centre-left Socialist Party ("Partido Socialista") with the centre-right Democratic People’s Party (PPD, Partido Popular Democrático) – latterly renamed the Social Democratic Party (PSD, Partido Social Democrático) - as the main opposition. The PS and the PSD have remained the two major political parties in Portugal since then and have largely alternated in power over since the restoration of democracy.

• Portuguese democracy has remained stable and largely unremarkable in the decades since the Carnation Revolution. Indeed, a number of commentators even suggested that Portugal had developed a political "immunity" against the kind nativist and authoritarian right-wing populism which has been on the rise in Europe over recent years. As late as 2018, analysts were still confident enough to state that ". . . right-wing populism has failed to gain electoral support, and the populist discourse is scarcely found in Portuguese politics”.1

• Up until relatively recently, right-wing populism failed to gain electoral support, and the populist discourse was scarcely found in Portuguese politics. The toxic "culture wars" which have led to hyper-partisanship and polarization in many other countries largely passed by Portugal, attributable perhaps to the well-established PS and PSD duopoly on power, low levels of Euroscepticism and a general benign public view on immigration and race relations. But these dynamics have changed quickly and unexpectedly, potentially paving the way for right-wing populists in Portugal to achieve more political prominence in the next two to three years. How did this happen?

• In 2022, Prime Minister António Costa of the PS secured a startling victory in legislative elections, winning an overall majority and thus dispensing with its previous alliance of convenience with the Left Bloc ("Bloco da Esquerda"). With Costa having secured a third term as Prime Minister, the socialists were riding high and the centre-right seemed destined for a long period in opposition.

1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-017-0062-8

• The 2022 elections also saw an electoral breakthrough for Chega (officially stylised as CHEGA!; translated as "Enough!"), led by lawyer and former soccer player André Ventura. Espousing policies on immigration, social issues and the welfare state which place if firmly on the far-right of the political spectrum, Chega went from one seat in the legislature in 2019 to twelve by 2022.

• By November 2023, Costa’s socialists had imploded. The Prime Minister resigned after prosecutors detained his chief of staff in relation to alleged corruption in government contracts for data centres, lithium mining and green hydrogen production.

• A subsequent snap general election in March 2024 transformed the political landscape, with the PS losing power to a centre-right coalition called the Democratic Alliance ("Aliança Democrática") led by the PSD, whose leader Luis Montenegro became Prime Minister. But overall, combined support for the traditional centre-left and centre-right dropped to its lowest level since the 1980s. No party gained an overall majority (the PSD improved modestly from 74 to 77 seats). Most significantly Chega became the third largest party in Parliament, securing 18% of the popular vote and seeing its parliamentary bloc go from twelve seats to fifty.

 What next?                                                                                                                                 

• Ironically, as Portugal commemorates the fall of an authoritarian, right-wing regime in 1974, in 2024 we may see hard-right Chega emerge as a major political force and even the possibility of Ventura becoming Prime Minister or at least kingmaker. Ventura is successfully tapping into growing public discontent with the established parties, perceptions of corruption, and failing public services especially health and education. Moreover, previously relaxed attitudes to immigration have hardened and anti-immigrant feeling is rising often being stoked by Ventura. Younger voters seem to be responding to his adept use of social media and his simplistic answers to complex questions, while older supporters appear to have migrated from the PSD and other small Catholic- and agrarian-based right-wing parties.

• We anticipate that Chega will do well in forthcoming municipal and European elections, further strengthening its position and threatening to overtake the Democratic Alliance as the preferred party of the Right.

• Meanwhile, the defeated socialists have veered left with their choice of Pedro Nuno Santos as their leader. In trying to consolidate his leadership Nuno Santos may choose a belligerent style of opposition but this comes with risks. He may attempt to bring down the budget in November 2024, which would trigger another general election, probably in March 2025. Based on current polling, Chega would gain enough seats in the legislature to be a coalition partner with the PSD, something which Prime Minister Montenegro has discounted. Should Montenegro lose the leadership of the PSD / Democratic Alliance there are other leadership contenders who would certainly feel less queasy about a coalition with Chega, and seeing Ventura take a prominent role in government.

• How Ventura might influence government or how he would govern if he ever became Prime Minister is an open question and can only be inferred from his policy statements and public utterances to date. Many political analysts have liked him to Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, whose so-called "illiberal democracy" is thought to be a strong influence on Ventura. Fifty years after the Carnation Revolution that might mean the winding back of liberal social policies on abortion, gay marriage, and immigration, and a concomitant attempt to stifle dissent. Perhaps indicative of the "Orbanist" bent of Chega, following the March 2024 general election, the Orbán’s political director said the following in a social media post:

• “The Portuguese, who are dissatisfied with the political system that has been in place for fifty years, see in us the possibility of a radical change to the existing paradigm. They are supporting us in this fight. We have come to give voice to the silent majority, to those who gave up on fighting against the system until we came along. And he not only said it, but he did also it! Congrats André Ventura".